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Turkey’s ‘Asia Anew’ isn’t just a slogan—it’s a growing strategic surprise for India

While Turkey has expanded arms sales to Pakistan and Bangladesh, India has been conspicuously excluded, or rather blacklisted.

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India finds itself navigating one of the most turbulent geopolitical periods in recent memory. The strategic alignment between Pakistan and China during Operation Sindoor—India’s first two-front war—and Islamabad’s engagement with the United States after that have complicated India’s regional and global strategic calculus.

Meanwhile, West Asia teeters on the brink of open war, and Eastern Europe remains mired in conflict.

Amid this global instability, Turkey is quietly deepening its footprint in the Indian subcontinent. Hours after Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, the Turkish Navy’s Ada-class corvette, TCG Büyükada, docked in Colombo—its sixth such visit to Sri Lanka in a year. The personal reception by Sri Lanka’s acting Defence Minister, Major General Aruna Jayasekara (Retd), signals Ankara’s rising influence in the region. Once focused largely on Muslim-majority nations, Turkey’s evolving engagement with non-Muslim states like Sri Lanka hints at a broader strategic pivot—one that deserves close attention in New Delhi’s long-term security assessments.

In recent years, Turkey has rapidly expanded its defence footprint in the Indian subcontinent, emerging as the second-largest arms supplier, after China, to both Pakistan and Bangladesh. The strategic depth of its engagement with Pakistan is particularly evident in joint defence initiatives like the Turkish fifth-generation fighter project, Kaan. Beyond South Asia’s continental core, Ankara is also extending its reach into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), including into the Maldives. However, it is Turkey’s growing ties with Sri Lanka—a non-Muslim-majority state and one of the six key island nations in the IOR—that suggest a more comprehensive regional recalibration.

Few have noted that Turkey has played a significant role in modernising Sri Lanka’s naval capabilities—a point acknowledged by Jayasekara. Since 2021, Ankara has sought to intensify defence cooperation with Colombo, even as its partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh drew the spotlight in New Delhi. Today, both Sri Lanka and Turkey describe each other as “extremely valuable allies,” signalling a strategic convergence that goes beyond defence.

For the uninitiated, the six island nations of strategic importance—Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Madagascar, and Comoros—may be small in landmass but command vast maritime zones. Turkey’s growing assertive engagement in this arena shows a shift from identity-based diplomacy to one driven by geopolitical calculus. For India, this should raise concern not just over Turkey’s growing presence in its maritime periphery, but also the potential for alignment with China—hinting at a broader strategy to counterbalance India’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.

But what strategic framework, then, enables NATO-member Turkey to deepen its Asian and Indo-Pacific ambitions?


Also read: China’s growing influence in Indian Ocean is worrying. It harms the region’s stability


Turkey’s ‘Asia Anew’

Unveiled in August 2019, Turkey’s “Asia Anew” initiative represents a recalibrated foreign policy approach aimed at leveraging Asia’s geopolitical and economic centrality in a multipolar world. Framed around cooperation in diplomacy, trade, education, and culture, ‘Asia Anew’, at first glance, appears to promote inclusive engagement. Yet beneath its inclusive rhetoric lies a more selective reality—most notably in the defence sector. While Ankara has expanded arms sales to countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, India—Asia’s dominant regional power—has been conspicuously excluded, or rather blacklisted.

Economically, Asia represents both promise and peril for Turkey. Although the region constitutes a third of Ankara’s global trade, an overwhelming trade deficit—primarily with China—clouds the picture. Through free trade agreements with South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore, Turkey seeks to integrate more deeply into regional supply chains. These efforts, bolstered by domestic export incentives, paint a positive economic narrative. However, this is only part of the picture.

Strategically, Ankara is attempting a balancing act—strengthening ties with Asian powers while remaining anchored to NATO and the West. Yet internal policy debates reflect a deeper ambivalence. Eurasianists push for closer ties with China, while traditionalists caution against undermining transatlantic relationships. In practice, “Asia Anew” has not yet produced transformative outcomes. A recent scholarly analysis noted the limited impact of the initiative across East and Southeast Asia, despite its four-year run.

Still, Turkey possesses certain diplomatic assets. With 54 missions across Asia and leadership roles in regional forums like the Asian Parliamentary Assembly, Ankara has institutional tools to deepen ties. A thriving defence industry is another tool. Localised successes—especially in defence-industrial cooperation with Pakistan, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and others—hint at important footholds if not yet strategic breakthroughs.

From India’s perspective, Turkey’s narrative of “shared Asian values” often rings hollow. Ankara’s open alignment with Pakistan—especially its 360-degree support during Operation Sindoor and on the Kashmir issue—has significantly damaged its credibility in Indian policy circles. Far from appearing as a neutral, cooperative actor, Turkey increasingly looks like a state pursuing selective partnerships shaped by rivalry, not regional harmony.

Ultimately, “Asia Anew” is neither an empty slogan nor a fully realised strategy. It is a fluid, opportunistic framework—one that enables Ankara to frame its geopolitical ambitions under the broader guise of multipolarity. For New Delhi, this selective engagement raises red flags, as it reflects less a genuine Asian convergence and more a calculated attempt to reshape regional alignments—often in ways that directly challenge Indian interests.

A subset of Asia Anew still requires separate mention.


Also read: Amid Red Sea crisis and China’s belligerence, Indian Ocean countries agree to keep zone stable


Turkish presence in the IOR

Turkey’s push for indigenous defence production has allowed it to reduce dependency on its traditional Western allies and expand its strategic autonomy—especially in emerging geopolitical theatres. Remember that the Indian Ocean links Africa and Asia through an extensive network of Pacific waterways and ports.

Turkey’s growing defence exports have made significant inroads into Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and parts of the Horn of Africa, where Ankara’s influence is increasingly visible.

Somalia, in particular, exemplifies this transformation. With strong political and military agreements in place, Turkey is cementing its presence in the Horn and Red Sea regions—areas of vital strategic interest for India. Notably, the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Somalia is witnessing increased Turkish naval activity, and discussions are underway for establishing a missile and space rocket test site there. This would not only bolster Ankara’s long-range missile capabilities but also mark its entry into the global space arena—further enhancing its defence export appeal.

In parallel, Turkey is extending its reach into the other sides of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as well. In 2024, the Maldives signed a major drone deal with Ankara and hosted the Turkish warship TCG Kinaliada, at a time when its relations with India were severely strained. This follows six Turkish naval visits to Sri Lanka within a single year—an engagement largely overlooked in Indian strategic discourse.

While India’s defence circles have  monitored Turkey’s growing alignment with Pakistan, they have not registered  the broader, more subtle but steady encroachment occurring across the IOR. With India’s strategic mindset still largely fixated on countering China, Turkey’s growing regional assertiveness has slipped under the radar. Strategic discourse in India is still focussed on counterbalancing Turkey by deepening ties with Greece and Cyprus. While that is important, it may not be enough.

Operation Sindoor may have been a turning point. The operation helped spark a more vigilant approach within Indian security circles toward regional developments. Turkey’s emergence as a disruptive actor and potential arch-rival in India’s maritime periphery should not be underestimated. The lack of peer-reviewed research or robust media engagement on this topic has been a strategic blind spot. If India fails to rigorously assess Ankara’s evolving role in its near and extended backyard, it risks being encircled on yet another front. A comprehensive strategic review is no longer optional—it is imperative.

Swasti Rao is a consulting editor at ThePrint and a foreign policy expert. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

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3 COMMENTS

  1. India should have a FTA and visa-free work and travel for Sri Lankans, like Nepal does. That will integration between the two countries.

  2. Don’t be a CAT on the WALL ,Mr.Erdogan .
    WikiLeaks cables: Pope wanted Muslim Turkey kept out of EU
    This article is more than 14 years old
    Vatican diplomats also lobbied against Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and wanted ‘Christian roots’ enshrined in EU constitution

  3. India has so much to do. Foreign policy, demographic dividends getting lost too.

    But our PM is solely focussed on Image,Media management & election campaigns. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

    On top of that, there’s no credible alternate to Modi.

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